EU enlargement and the Common Agricultural Policy

What is the likely outcome of EU accession negotiations involving Central and East European countries concerning the EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)? This highly contentious issue is approached here as a case of interstate bargaining and national preference formation. Three options are analyzed — full application of the CAP, total exclusion of direct agricultural subsidies, and a compromise that might involve partial re-nationalization and reorientation of payments towards environment and rural development. The third, compromise variant is most likely and preferable —facilitated by pressure groups among rural/environmental and commercial farming interests.