Exploratory Spatial Analysis of Pilot Fatality Rates in General Aviation Crashes Using Geographic Information Systems

Grabowski, Jurek G.
Curriero, Frank C.
Baker, Susan P.
Li, Guohua

¹Department of Emergency Medicine, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD.
²Department of Biostatistics, The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD.
³Center for Injury Research and Policy, The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD.

Received for publication January 17, 2001, and accepted for publication August 29, 2001.

An earlier version of this study was presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Public Health Association in Boston, Massachusetts, November 12–16, 2000.

Reprint requests to Dr. Guohua Li, Department of Emergency Medicine, The Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, 1830 East Monument Street, Suite 6-100, Baltimore, MD 21205 (e-mail: [email protected]).

American Journal of Epidemiology 155(5):p 398-405, March 1, 2002.

Geographic information systems and exploratory spatial analysis were used to describe the geographic characteristics of pilot fatality rates in 1983–1998 general aviation crashes within the continental United States. The authors plotted crash sites on a digital map; rates were computed at regular grid intersections and then interpolated by using geographic information systems. A test for significance was performed by using Monte Carlo simulations. Further analysis compared low-, medium-, and high-rate areas in relation to pilot characteristics, aircraft type, and crash circumstance. Of the 14,051 general aviation crashes studied, 31% were fatal. Seventy-four geographic areas were categorized as having low fatality rates and 53 as having high fatality rates. High-fatality-rate areas tended to be mountainous, such as the Rocky Mountains and the Appalachian region, whereas low-rate areas were relatively flat, such as the Great Plains. Further analysis comparing low-, medium-, and high-fatality-rate areas revealed that crashes in high-fatality-rate areas were more likely than crashes in other areas to have occurred under instrument meteorologic conditions and to involve aircraft fire. This study demonstrates that geographic information systems are a valuable tool for injury prevention and aviation safety research.